THERE IS A BIGGER ONE AFTER “ONDOY”

The aftermath of Typhoon Ondoy is a scenario out of a disaster movie; the only exception is that it bites. Real and vivid are the bloated bodies, the distressed faces, the loss and grief of losing family members and millions worth of properties destroyed in the worst flooding Metro Manila experienced in almost four decades.



The ‘Big One’


But there is a more compelling and sinister scenario that is supposed to happen in Metro Manila; something bigger and horrifying. It was called the ‘Big One” by the experts way back in 2004, and Marikina is again in the thick of things.
The possibility of a magnitude 7 earthquake hitting Metro Manila is a foregone conclusion, says an article in the Philippine Daily Inquirer last June 2009. The question is what we should do about it and how do we prepare for such a disaster of epic proportions that even the rage of Ondoy cannot compare? 
Grim picture of epic destruction
In a 2004 study conducted by Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI), a non-government non-profit scientific international organization whose mission is the acceleration of earthquake preparedness, mitigation and recovery of large urban areas, the Marikina Fault Line (see attached map) has the potential to bring about a magnitude 7 earthquake which will cause widespread destruction to Metro Manila. In their simulation of the effects of such quake in the center of Metro Manila, a grim picture of epic destruction can be concluded. Variables like urban congestion, population density and buildings’ quake resistance will play roles in the extent of the damage the metro will suffer, according to the simulation. Buildings will collapse, says Arjun Kartoch, head of the Emergency Services Branch of the United Nation’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Geneva, Switzerland. A rough estimate, says Kartoch, would be “175,000 buildings destroyed”, “180,000 persons injured”, up to “three million will require evacuation” and “35,000 death toll”.
BBC host Nik Gowing hosted a debate, which was aired last July 4, 2009 on the BBC Network, about Disaster Risk Management which pitted Kartoch with Sen. Loren Legarda, Guido Bertolaso (head of Italian Civil Protection Agency) and Edward Borodzicz, a professor of Risk Management at Portsmouth Business School in the United Kingdom. During the debate, Kartoch presented the grim scenario of the Marikina Fault Line producing a magnitude 7 quake which will affect “millions of residents of Metro Manila”, population: 12 million.

The FAQ is ‘When’?

“The big earthquake is certainly coming. The question is when. No one can tell. It may happen tomorrow or next year. But it is certain, there will be an earthquake”. This is coming from Emmanuel de Guzman, the advisor for Asia-Pacific of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), citing reports from EMI which conducted the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS). Tremors have been felt, locally, in and around the fault line and in certain areas in Metro Manila in recent years. Weaker quakes of magnitude 1 to 3 have been felt in Iloilo, Negros, Samar and Davao in the past months. As of this writing, Sumatra, Indonesia was struck by a magnitude 7.6 in the Richter scale quake Wednesday, September 30, 2009, killing more than 75 persons and damaging millions worth of properties. In 2006, a 7.7 magnitude quake off southern Java, Indonesia triggered a tsunami and wiped out seaside communities, killing 596 people and displacing 74,000 others in Indonesia alone. Last September 29, 2009 at 1748 GMT, a powerful magnitude 8.8 undersea earthquake struck off the coast of Tonga Island in the Pacific. Several hours later 4.5 meter waves struck the shores of Samoan Islands, killing dozens of unprepared villagers.

For years now, Japan has been bracing itself for an expected magnitude 8 quake believed most likely to strike in the Tokai region near Tokyo. But despite of the modern advances in technology and monitoring equipment Japan and the United States have, there is still no way to predict when an earthquake will happen. The area can be pinpointed, the extent and magnitude can be simulated, but the time is still undeterminable. The series of quakes in the “Pacific Ring of Fire” in the recent years and months points to the fact that the tectonic plates and the smaller sub-plates and faults are moving. It implies a horrifying scenario. “When there is an earthquake, it will release stress on that part of the system but it might transfer some of that stress to another part which might bring forward another earthquake,” said Ken Gledhill, a government seismologist in New Zealand where a giant 7.8-magnitude quake hit on July 15, 2009. This provides a scenario of how the Pacific Ring of Fire acts, as quakes and tremors have been recorded in the past year and months from the coast of California to the Polynesian Islands down to Australia and New Zealand, connecting to the quakes in Indonesia, the 7.5-magnitude quake in the Andaman Islands in the Indian Ocean and closing to the magnitude 6.4 quake that hit Japan on August 11, 2009. It defines the ‘ring’ of the Pacific Ring of Fire.



The Marikina Valley Fault Line



The Marikina Valley Fault Line is actually composed of two fault lines, called the West Valley Fault Line, which is the longer of the two and stretches from the Angat Dam in Bulacan to Taal lake, and the East Valley Fault Line which runs along Antipolo to Rodriguez (Montalban). The area between the two fault lines is comprised of Marikina, Pasig, Muntinlupa, San Mateo and Rodriguez in Rizal province. A valley is formed between the two fault lines which is called the Marikina Valley. Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum Jr. had said that in the last 1,000 years, the Marikina Fault Line System recorded four strong earthquakes close to magnitude 7 on the Richter scale. He has issued a warning to the provincial officials of Bulacan during a committee hearing of the Sangguniang Panlalawigan of Bulacan last September 20, 2009 – Prepare for the worse. Angat Dam, previously blamed by some for the release of water during the Ondoy onslaught, can become an aggravating factor when a magnitude 7 quake will hit Metro Manila by spilling over huge volumes of water or worst break its foundations and release a deluge powerful enough to drown everything in its path. By that time, fires will erupt amid ruins of buildings and a sudden flood would make it the worst nightmare scenario for everyone. Some Dumagat tribesmen in Bulacan have repeatedly attested that a crack is present in the Angat Dam, fueling speculation that the dam presents one of the biggest aggravating factors for the forthcoming earthquake.

Solidum said that the “interval of the major movement of the West Valley fault is between 200 and 400 years. The lower interval of 200 years had passed. Probability wise, parang malapit na yung susunod na movement”. According to Solidum, the magnitude of an earthquake is dependent on the length of the fault system, and cited that the West Valley Fault is capable of earthquake with at least seven in magnitude. 
The Marikina Valley Fault Line lies between locations of two recent earthquakes: the Philippine Fault in Luzon and the Aglubang River Fault in Mindoro. There have been movements above and below the Marikina Fault Line and as theories in Volcanology and Seismology goes, pressure is already exerted in the MVFL. Although the MVFL is not part of the longer Philippine Fault, which stretches from the northern tip of Ilocos (passing a few hundred kilometres of Mt. Pinatubo) to northern part of Eastern Visayas passing in its way Mt. Mayon, it is long enough to deliver a seven magnitude quake and strategically located to swath most of Metro Manila. 


Furthermore, the Philipine Fault and the Lubang Fault are two active left-lateral strike-slip faults – meaning that the Philippine Fault is pushing downward to the right of the MVFL and the Lubang Fault is pushing left going to the direction of the South China Sea, causing a clockwise rotation in the Marikina Valley which circumference extends from Bulacan in the north, Rizal in the east, Laguna and part of Cavite in the south and Bataan to the west (encompassing Manila Bay and Metro Manila in the clockwise circle of movement). For the record, in the last 35 years the Philippines have experienced 10 earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7.0.

The Marikina Valley Fault Line lies only 10 kilometers east of central Manila, which goes without saying that unimaginable destruction of the metro can be expected when a magnitude 7 quake strike. The risk is very real and very big, according to Sen. Legarda on the BBC debate, but it can be reduced by investing in disaster preparedness and risk reduction by building safe hospitals and other infrastructure and by conducting risk assessment studies in local government units.

How prepared are we?



After typhoon Ondoy the government’s disaster response and management has been put to the test and found wanting, very wanting. The NDCC scrambled to contain the dilemma to no avail due to inadequacy of preparation, personnel and equipment, including disaster management plans with the local governments. The flood disaster was a “sin of omission by the government and private real estate developers”, according to urban planner Felino Palafox. Urban and zoning plans were already in place but due to graft and corruption it was neglected, add to that the waste disposal mismanagement and habit of the people.
The feared magnitude 7 quake, the “Big One”, has been announced by experts, both foreign and local, to the media and the government since 2004 but looking at the government’s response after the onslaught of Ondoy there is a very big chance that Metro Manila will go down in history books for being one of the worst destructive earthquake. Planning for this eventuality cannot be done overnight. “Earthquakes do not kill, but unsafe structures do”, says Sen. Legarda. Again, the urban planning and zoning laws could help us mitigate the losses we might receive if properly implemented. Together with comprehensive disaster management and response, information campaign and increasing the capabilities of first responders like the Bureau of Fire Protection, local government rescue groups, allied agencies of the NDCC, this forthcoming cataclysmic event can be faced with undaunting courage that the Filipinos always exhibit in the face of adversities.

The havoc of Ondoy. September 26, 2009.

A bigger disaster waiting to happen in Metro Manila.